KSGrading & Surfacing
Dec 2025
Dec 2025
Call 252
0.27%
under the winning bid
Forecast$287.20M
Winning bid$287.97M
Runner-up+19.6%
Within 5%Win
Every price on this page is part of our live case study: each forecast was produced before bid day and scored against the published letting result. Nothing was generated or revised after the envelopes were opened. Across $4.8 Billion of DOT Lettings in Florida, Kansas, and Texas, we use Fold16 models, alongside our Research Center, to forecast every bid.
Outcome chips simulate how the forecast would have fared as an independent bidder. Fold16 submitted no bids on these lettings.
Highlights we published before the letting, pulled from our full market reports.
Forecast performance by work type, straight from the full market report. Weak rows are published alongside strong ones. Categories marked Early have fewer than 30 settled contracts; their rates are early evidence and firm up as the record extends.
| Work category | Contracts | Awarded | $-weighted error | Median error | $ within 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMA Overlay | 243 | $978.2M | 9.91% | 8.46% | 58% |
| Grading & Surfacing | 82 | $785.6M | 8.12% | 12.69% | 73% |
| Rehabilitation of Existing Road | 43 | $477.1M | 13.22% | 11.51% | 37% |
| Interchange (New or Reconstructed)Early | 8 | $803.9M | 10.54% | 4.01% | 66% |
| Widen Non-FreewayEarly | 15 | $640.2M | 7.99% | 5.01% | 72% |
| Widen FreewayEarly | 5 | $618.9M | 7.37% | 5.83% | 67% |
| Freeway Operational ImprovementsEarly | 6 | $396.8M | 16.22% | 11.24% | 12% |
| OtherEarly | 7 | $94.7M | 6.79% | 7.66% | 86% |
The complete analysis behind the highlights above, open to read, no sign-up. Click a cover to read it right here, or download the PDF.
$4.80B reconstructed across FL · KS · TX over 409 settled contracts, at 0.64% portfolio bias.
Six $20M+ lettings, $258.7M awarded: forecast within 2.5% dollar-weighted, 5 of 6 within 5%.
The bigger the job, the sharper the call: dollar-weighted forecast error by contract size, across all 409 settled contracts.